在之前报告中，我们提出减税降费可能是接下来的主要政策“亮点”，同时，货币宽松继续加码的空间和必要性均有所下降。在本篇专题报告中，我们综合分析今年（个税、增值税、和社保缴费）3项主要税收改革提振企业和居民收入的“路径”，并模拟3项叠加对分阶段总需求的具体影响。
首先，本次减税规模不同。据财政部估算，今年降税降费“组合拳”的综合效应可能达到2 万亿（约2%的2019年GDP）。如果得以有效实施，不论从总金额还是占政府收入的比例来看，这2万亿的减税规模都将是空前的。
更重要的是，目前看来，今年减税降费政策的执行力度大幅超出了我们的预期。从目前已实施的个税改革和小型纳税人“扩容”+税收减免等政策的执行情况看，这些部门的税负均已明显减轻。
从减税对收入与总需求的提振“路径”来看，居民可支配收入可能在1季度受益最明显，所以2季度消费增长有望明显加速。对企业现金流与盈利而言，增值税、社保、和其他税费的减免所带来的提振效应可能在2季度开始体现，并约在3季度达到“峰值”。盈利复苏领先企业资本开支周期。具体而言：
据我们估算，1月1日起开始“全套”实施的个税改革有望增厚居民可支配收入5000亿元左右（总居民可支配收的1.2%左右）。中国个税的征收方式决定了其减税效应该已经在2019年1季度效果达到绝对“峰值”，其后影响延续6-8个季度，但逐季递减。这样看，个税减收对2季度的消费环比提振效应将最为明显。分析近期财税数据，我们估计1季度单季个税少收近2000亿，约占当季可支配收入2%。
财政部预测，4月1日期执行的增值税（VAT）税率下调及其他配套措施有望为企业减税1万亿元以上 。VAT减税对企业盈利上的提振或在今年3-4季度最为显著；而由于已开始实施，针对小企业减税政策的效果可能在2季度就已初现端倪。据财政部估算，今年小型纳税人“扩容”及相应税负减免政策有望为小企业减税2000亿元左右，虽然其减税总量不及增值税全面下调的影响，但惠及服务业云集的小企业“长尾”、对居民收入和消费的提振效果明显。
财政部估算，5月1日起执行的社保费率及税基下调可能在2019年就为企业减负3000亿元以上 。我们预计，两项合并减负的年化金额约达5000亿人民币。社保降费提振企业盈利“立竿见影”，其红利或在今年2-3季度达到峰值。所以，今年2季度开始，企业的现金流和盈利能力有望受到增值税和社保费率调整的双重提振，其“叠加效应”可能在3季度达到高峰。
减税降费政策的执行是关键。如果执行得力，政府收入通过减税向居民和企业部门的“再分配”有望明显提振总需求。所以，随着政策组合向“宽财政、稳货币”换挡，下半年内需增长“引擎”也可能由消费和制造业投资“接棒”。
We highlighted previously that fiscal easing via tax and fee cuts may be the “bright spot” in the policy mix going forward, while the room and necessity for further monetary stimulus have declined. In this note, we examine execution of the tax cut policies so far and provide a thorough analysis for the “path” of fiscal impulse from the 3 main tax & fee cut initiatives launching at different times in 2019. With this exercise, we aim to help “visualize” the frame by frame impact on personal income, corporate profit, & sectoral demand.
Firstly, per MOF, The annualized amount of tax & fee cuts may reach Rmb2trn (~2% of 2019 estimated GDP). If realized, it would be the largest in China’s history measured by the absolute amount or % in gov’t income.
More importantly, the execution of the tax cut measures so far has exceeded our expectations, judged by the visible tax relief from the already-implemented tax reforms for households and small enterprises.
In terms of the “path” of fiscal impulse, we expect to see a visible pick-up in personal consumption growth in 2Q. The boost to corporate profit and cash flow will likely start in 2Q19 and reach “full swing” around 3Q19.
Personal income tax reform took effect on January 1. We expect annualized tax relief to reach ~Rmb500bn (~1.2% of annual household disposable income). Under China’s personal tax regime, the impact on household disposable income may have peaked in 1Q19, but will remain positive for the next 6–8 quarters. The 1Q fiscal data shows that the tax relief may have reached ~Rmb200bn in 1Q, or ~2% of disposable income.
VAT cut and other related reforms were implemented on April 1. The MOF foresees >Rmb1trn (>1% of GDP) reduction in corporate tax burden in one year. The impact may be most notable in 3–4Q19. The benefits from small enterprise tax cuts may be visible as early as 2Q, as they were already implemented on January 1. These SME-oriented policies, which are expected to reduce Rmb200bn in SME tax payment per MOF, will likely benefit consumption and the service sector.
Payroll tax reform will take hold on May 1. We expect a reduction of Rmb500bn from the cut in payroll tax rate and taxable base in one year. The cost-cutting impact for the corporate sector is “instantaneous” and therefore most notable in 2–3Q19. Corporate cash flow and retained earnings are expected to get a “double boost” from VAT and payroll tax reforms from 2Q onwards, with the impact most notable around 3Q.
Assuming effective execution, the sizable redistribution of gov’t income among the household and corporate sectors would boost aggregate demand growth in a more sustained manner. The shift of policy mix to “fiscal easing via tax and fee cuts + stable monetary expansion” indicates that the “growth engine” may rotate towards more consumption and capex-driven in 2H19.
