10月9日国务院发布《实施更大规模减税降费后调整中央与地方收入划分改革推进方案》[1](以下简称“方案”),提出保持增值税“五五分享”比例稳定,调整完善增值税留抵退税分担机制,后移消费税征收环节并稳步下划地方三项改革措施。其中,前两项改革措施是增值税改革的延续,第三项关于消费税改革市场较为关注。
此次消费税的改革主要包括两方面:一是征收环节后移,将部分在生产(进口)环节征收的现行消费税品目逐步后移至批发或零售环节征收。二是稳步下划地方,拓展地方收入来源,增量部分原则上将归属地方。
最先实施消费税改革的商品范围较小。“方案”提出,先对高档手表、贵重首饰和珠宝玉石等条件成熟的品目实施改革。我国目前对15类商品征收消费税,包括烟、成品油、小汽车、酒、贵重首饰珠宝、摩托车、高档手表、高尔夫球和球具、游艇、高档化妆品、木制一次性筷子、实木地板、鞭炮烟火、电池、涂料等。其中,烟、油、车、酒四类商品贡献近99%的国内消费税,此次改革并未包括。
消费税是我国第四大税种,将消费税增量划归地方将拓展地方政府收入来源。2018年国内消费税1.06万亿元,约占当年税收7%,是我国税收中仅次于国内增值税、企业所得税和个人所得税的第四大税收来源。此外,进口货物也要缴纳消费税。2018年进口产品消费税、增值税合计1.68万亿,考虑消费税仅对部分商品征收,1.68万亿中可能只有一小部分来自消费税。目前消费税收入全部归中央所有,将增量消费税下划地方将为地方政府带来新的收入来源。
如果税率、计税方式等其他因素不变,征收环节后移可能提高总消费税。商品从出厂开始,经过流通环节,最后到零售环节,销售价格会逐步上升。如果税率和计税方式不变,将征收环节后移会增加消费税税额。生产厂商由于直接税负下降会在短期内受益,但消费税上升会抑制最终消费和商品销量。消费税除了为政府提供收入,还具有补偿外部性和调节收入分配的职能。消费税主要针对具有负外部性和高收入群体消费的特定商品征收,扩大消费并不是消费税改革的重点目标。
未来消费税改革范围可能逐步扩大。由于下游批发零售商数目远多于生产厂商,将征收环节后移会增加纳税人户数、提高税收征缴成本。“方案”提出,“在征管可控的前提下,将部分在生产(进口)环节征收的现行消费税品目逐步后移至批发或零售环节征收”,“具体调整品目经充分论证,逐项报批后稳步实施”,“结合消费税立法对其他具备条件的品目实施改革试点”。我们预计消费税改革会是一个稳步推进的渐进过程。
消费税税收法定仍待落实。目前我国有关消费税的法规是2008年发布的《中华人民共和国消费税暂行条例》和《中华人民共和国消费税暂行条例实施细则》。2019年财政部立法工作安排[2]提出力争年内完成增值税法、消费税法、印花税法、城市维护建设税法、土地增值税法、关税法、彩票管理条例(修订)的部内起草工作,及时上报国务院。目前尚未公布新的进展情况。
注:
[1]http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2019-10/09/content_5437544.htm
[2]http://www.mof.gov.cn/mofhome/tfs/zhengwuxinxi/caizhengfazhidongtai/201903/t20190320_3199939.html
The State Council[1] on October 9 issued a document on reforming revenue allocation mechanism between central and local governments amid larger-scale tax & fee cuts. The plan proposes to 1) continue allocating half of value-added tax (VAT) revenue each to central government and local government, 2) improve sharing mechanism for refunding un-deducted input tax, and 3) shift consumption tax collection to wholesale or retail side and transfer consumption tax revenue to local government. The reforms on VAT represent continuation of previous initiatives, and the market pays more attention to the consumption tax reform.
The consumption tax reform aims to shift consumption tax collection from the points of production (and import) to wholesale or retail, and transfer consumption tax revenue from central government to local government to expand local government’s source of revenue. In principle, incremental consumption tax revenue should be allocated to local government.
The initial step of reform only covers limited product categories. The plan proposes to reform consumption tax on high-end watches, precious jewelries, gems and jades initially. China is collecting consumption tax from 15 product categories, i.e. cigarettes, refined oil, cars, liquor, precious jewelries & gems, motorcycles, high-end watches, golf balls & equipment, yachts, high-end cosmetics, disposable wooden chopsticks, solid wood floors, firecrackers & fireworks, batteries, and coating materials. Notably, cigarettes, refined oil, cars and liquor contribute around 99% of domestic consumption tax revenue, and they are not covered by the initial step.
Consumption tax is the fourth largest tax revenue source in China, and transferring incremental consumption tax revenue to local governments will expand their source of revenue. Domestic consumption tax revenue reached Rmb1.06trn in 2018, accounting for 7% of total tax revenue and making it the fourth largest tax revenue source in China after value-added tax, corporate income tax and individual income tax. In addition, China also collects consumption tax on imported goods. In 2018, consumption tax and VAT on imported goods totaled Rmb1.68trn, of which we estimate consumption tax accounted for a small part as it is not collected on all imported goods. At present, consumption tax revenue is all allocated to central government. Transferring incremental consumption tax revenue to local governments will expand their future revenue source.
We estimate that shifting consumption tax collection to wholesale or retail may increase overall consumption tax, provided that tax rate and tax calculation method remain unchanged. Sales price of a product increases from producers to distributors and retailers. If tax rate and tax calculation method remain unchanged, shifting consumption tax collection to wholesale or retail will increase consumption tax. While producers may benefit in the near term thanks lower direct tax burden, rising consumption tax may weigh on consumption and producers’ sales. Apart from contributing tax revenue, consumption tax also has the functionalities of mitigating externalities and improving income distribution. Consumption tax is mainly collected on products with negative externalities and goods consumed by the rich. Boosting consumption may not be a primary target of the consumption tax reform.
The scope of consumption tax reform may gradually expand. As downstream wholesalers and retailers significantly outnumber producers, shifting tax collection from production side to wholesale or retail side could increase tax collection cost. According to the plan, the collection of consumption tax will be gradually shifted from the production (and import) side to wholesale or retail side for some products, provided that tax collection and management is controllable. The product categories covered by the consumption tax reform would be steadily expanded after elaborate discussion and approved case by case. Together with consumption tax legislation, reform pilot will be carried out on other product categories when conditions are appropriate. We think consumption tax reform will steadily and gradually advance.
Legislation on consumption tax still under way. The interim regulation on consumption tax and the implementation rules for the interim regulation on consumption tax, both released in 2008, regulate consumption tax in China. In 2019, the Ministry of Finance[2] plans to draft laws for value-added tax, consumption tax, stamp duty, city maintenance & construction tax, land appreciation tax and custom tariff and regulations for lottery management, and submit them to the State Council. The latest progress of consumption tax legislation is yet to be announced.
Note:
[1]http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2019-10/09/content_5437544.htm
[2]http://www.mof.gov.cn/mofhome/tfs/zhengwuxinxi/caizhengfazhidongtai/201903/t20190320_3199939.html