中美两国元首12月1日在布宜诺斯艾利斯举行会晤。中国国务委员兼外交部长王毅表示,两国元首达成共识停止加征新的关税。商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表王受文就中美会晤在经贸问题上达成的共识补充介绍了三方面成果:1)美国对中国2000亿美元产品征收的关税,明年1月1日之后,仍然维持在10%。2)双方决定,不再对其他新的产品加征新的关税;3)对于现在仍然加征25%的关税,中美将朝着取消的方向加紧谈判。
白宫方面发布声明表示:1)特朗普总统同意,2000亿美元商品的关税在2019年1月1日将维持10%水平不变,而不是提高到25%。2)中国将同意购买尚未商定但非常大量的美国农业、能源、工业及其他商品,以减小两国之间贸易不平,并且立即开始从美国农民手中购买农产品。3)两国元首同意立即开始就强制技术转让、知识产权保护、非关税壁垒、网络入侵和网络盗窃、服务业和农业等方面的结构性变革进行谈判,并尽力在未来90天内完成此项交易。如果在这段时间结束时,双方无法达成协议,10%的关税仍将提高到25%。
明年初中国对美国出口大幅下滑的风险缓解。如果美国按照原定计划将2000亿美元中国商品关税税率从10%提高到25%,对中国对美出口影响同已经实施的对500亿美元商品和2000亿美元商品分别征收25%和10%额外关税的影响接近。美国对中国500亿美元清单商品进口9月同比增速下降至-17.1%,而2000亿美元商品进口9月同比仍然增长20.7%。如果2000亿美元商品税率维持在10%不再提高、甚至取消,中国对美出口增速出现大幅下滑的风险有望缓解。
家具、电子、机械等受2000亿美元商品关税潜在冲击较大的行业风险降低或减缓。我们将美国对中国进口,按照中国国民经济行业分类进行归类,发现500亿美元商品关税主要集中在通用设备、专用设备、运输设备、仪器仪表等少数几个行业。而2000亿美元商品关税覆盖行业更多更广,如果征收25%的关税,半数以上制造业行业对美出口平均税率将提升10个百分点以上。结合美国占中国出口份额,以及各行业的出口依存度,我们发现,家具、电子、机械等行业受2000亿美元商品关税影响较大。如果2000亿美元商品关税不进一步提高,这些行业受到的潜在冲击将明显减轻或是延迟。
中国或将恢复对美国大豆、原油等商品进口。中国过去几个月基本停止了对美国大豆、原油、高粱等商品进口(其中原油并不在关税清单之中)。进入北半球冬季,美国将成为全球大豆最主要的收获地区。中金大宗商品组估计,如果中国不从美国进口大豆,通过降低饲料中蛋白质含量减少大豆消费,中国年度大豆缺口约在460万吨左右。而中国2017年从美国进口3200万吨大豆。如果中国恢复从美国进口大豆,国内大豆供求关系将会逆转。中国增加对美农产品和能源进口将给国内通胀带来下行压力,而中国对美进口增加也会替代部分对其他地区的进口。
达成共识为双方带来90天窗口期,但贸易谈判仍然存在不确定性。贸易摩擦缓解短期内有望提振国内市场情绪,但未来贸易摩擦演变仍取决于谈判进程。美方除了提出中国购买更多美国商品,还在“强制技术转让、知识产权保护、非关税壁垒、网络入侵和网络盗窃、服务业和农业方面的结构性转变”等方面提出了诉求。乐观情形下,90天谈判期之后,贸易摩擦能够得到进一步的化解,但也不能排除摩擦再度升温的可能。
国内经济政策仍面临挑战。今年前3季度,外需拖累GDP增速0.7个百分点,内需对GDP增速贡献7.4个百分点,总体而言内需强、外需弱。往前看,全球经济增长可能减速,即使贸易摩擦不升级,出口仍有可能放缓。内需方面,房地产可能成为明年经济增长的拖累。中金房地产组预计,2019年商品房销售面积-10%,房地产开发投资-5%。尽管中国将增加财政和基建投资力度,但是如果同时实施更大规模的减税措施,财政支出的支持可能难以抵消房地产和外需同步下滑的影响。此外,货币政策需要在稳内需和稳汇率之间寻求平衡,房地产政策也要在稳房价和稳增长之间寻求平衡。
The leaders of China and the United States met in Buenos Aires on December 1. Wang Yi, China’s state councilor and foreign minister, said that the Chinese and US leaders reached consensus to stop imposing new tariffs. Wang Shouwen, China’s vice commerce minister and deputy international trade representative, gave more details about the consensus reached by China and the US on trade at the G20: 1) the US’s tariffs on US$200bn worth of Chinese products will remain at 10% after January 1, 2019; 2) both parties decided not to impose new tariffs on other products; and 3) for the 25% tariffs currently in place, China and the US will step up negotiations in the direction of cancelling them.
The White House said in a statement that: 1) President Trump has agreed to leave the tariffs on US$200bn worth of Chinese products at the 10% rate on January 1, 2019, and not raise them to 25% at this time. 2) China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other products from the US to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries, and has agreed to start purchasing agricultural products from US farmers immediately. 3) President Trump and President Xi have agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. Both parties agree that they will endeavor to have this transaction completed within the next 90 days. If the parties are unable to reach an agreement at the end of this period of time, the 10% tariffs will be raised to 25%.
The risk of a sharp decline in China’s exports to the US in early 2019 is eased. If the US raises its tariffs on US$200bn of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% as originally planned, the impact on China’s exports to the US would be similar to those from the already imposed 25% tariffs on US$50bn of goods and 10% tariffs on US$200bn of goods. US imports of Chinese goods on the US$50bn tariff list already declined 17.1% YoY in September, while imports of goods on the US$200bn tariff list still increased 20.7% YoY in the month. If the tariffs on the US$200bn of goods are left at 10% or even cancelled, the risk of a sharp slowdown in China’s exports to the US should be eased.
The risk is reduced or delayed for industries that may be significantly impacted by US tariffs on US$200bn of Chinese goods, such as furniture, electronics and machinery. Having classified US imports from China according to China’s industrial classification, we found that the tariffs on US$50bn of goods only cover a few industries such as general equipment, special equipment, transportation equipment, while the tariffs on US$200bn of goods cover more and broader industries. If the tariffs on US$200bn of goods are raised to 25%, we estimate more than half of China’s manufacturing industries would see the average tariff rate on their exports to the US rise by more than 10ppt. Taking into account the US’s share in China’s exports and the export dependence of China’s industries, we found that the furniture, electronics and machinery industries are more affected by the tariffs on US$200bn of goods. If the tariffs are not further raised, the potential impact on these industries will be significantly reduced or delayed.
China may resume imports of soybeans, crude oil and other goods from the US. China has basically stopped importing soybeans, crude oil, sorghum and other goods from the US in the past few months (even crude oil is not on the tariff lists). As the northern hemisphere enters winter, the US becomes the main harvest region for soybeans in the world. The CICC commodity team estimates that if China does not import US soybeans and reduces feed protein content, her annual soybean shortage would be about 4.6mn tonnes. Since China imported 32mn tonnes of soybeans from the US in 2017, if China resumes soybean imports from the US, the domestic soybean supply and demand relationship would be reversed. An increase in China’s imports of agricultural and energy products from the US will likely put downward pressure on domestic inflation and reduce China’s imports from other regions.
The consensus reached gives the two countries 90 days for trade negotiations, but there is still uncertainty in the negotiations. While the easing of trade frictions is likely to boost domestic market sentiment in the short term, the evolution of trade frictions still depends on the results of future negotiations. In addition to proposing that China purchases more US goods, the US also demands “structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture”. In an optimistic scenario, trade frictions can be further resolved after the 90-day negotiation period. However, the possibility of frictions escalating again cannot be ruled out.
Domestic economic policies still face challenges. External demand dragged China’s GDP growth in 1–3Q18 down by 0.7ppt, while domestic demand contributed 7.4ppt to the growth. Looking ahead, global economic growth may decelerate. Even if trade frictions do not escalate, external demand may still weaken. In terms of domestic demand, real estate may become a drag on economic growth next year. The CICC real estate team expects property sales in GFA terms and real estate development investment in 2019 to shrink 10% and 5%. Although China will likely increase its fiscal spending and infrastructure investment, the support from fiscal policy may not be able to offset the impact of weaker real estate and external demand if more tax cuts are implemented at the same time. In addition, monetary policy needs to strike a balance between stabilizing domestic demand and stabilizing exchange rate. Real estate policy also needs to strike a balance between stabilizing property prices and stabilizing economic growth.